KENYA'S ECONOMIC INTERESTS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SOUTHERN SUDAN
GODWIN ONG'ANYA
BA
A Thesis Research Proposal Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in International Relations of Moi University
August 2010
DECLARATION
DECLARATION BY CANDIDATE
This thesis proposal is my original work and has not been presented for a degree in any other University. No part of this proposal may be reproduced without the prior written permission of the author and/or Moi University.
Godwin Ong'anya.................................................... Date: .............................
DECLARATION BY UNIVERSITY SUPERVISORS
This research proposal has been submitted with our approval as University Supervisors
Harry Ododa (PhD) .............................................. Date ..............................
Department of History, Political Science and Public Administration
School of Arts and Social Sciences
MOI UNIVERSITY
Anne Nangulu (PhD) ............................................... Date ......................................
Department of History, Political Science and Public Administration
School of Arts and Social Sciences
MOI UNIVERSITY
DEDICATION
This study is dedicated to proponents of idealism as a paradigm in understanding international politics
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many have influenced my resolve to research on national interest. Most importantly, I acknowledge the support and mentorship from my supervisors, Dr Harry Ododa and Professor Anne Nangulu for their dedication to see my project to successful completion.
To reach the level I am in my academic endeavour, I thank my grandparents for the sacrifice they have made. I acknowledge my mother for raising me up. The challenging discussions I had in my postgraduate class, to which I mention the most influential members in Mr Brian Muliro, Mrs. Margaret Baya and Mr Jackson Migwi. Muliro proved an ardent realist while the other two are idealists in political disposition. This diversity provided me adequate argument to boost my realist disposition.
I extend my acknowledgement to my long-time Philosophy lecturer, Mr Simon Chessetto for the challenge he paused to me while teaching political philosophy at both undergraduate and graduate levels. He influenced my decision to major in Philosophy at my undergraduate studies. Through him, I came to understand philosophy as a basis for logical argument and understanding. Members of the department, and especially Messrs. Ken Oluoch, Kilong'i Wenani, and Kiboyye Yogo, Prof Peter Ndege and Ms Esther Arusei, my only lady lecturer. Appreciation to Dr John Mwaruvie, lecturer of Comparative Public Administration and Head of Department.
I may not list all the people who have influenced my work, as it will require volumes of its own. To all, I say may the good Lord reward you.
The national interest of a state is the intrinsic goal pursued by the state in order to maximise what is selfishly best for it. Every state has its national interest entrenched within its political system to ensure its security and territorial integrity. As the oldest paradigm in understanding international relations, political realism holds that the international system is an anarchy characterised by self help in security matters. States strive to maximise their power, traditionally interpreted in terms of military might. Therefore, national interest has been expressly understood in terms of power as noted by scholars of international relations. Sovereignty is jealously guarded and national power is optimised to enhance state security holistically. This research proposes to work within the framework of neoclassical realism theory which holds that state power is influenced by both international and domestic realities. It is in the interest of the state to advance holistically to be able to provide for its population. Kenya is a state in the east coast of Africa, positioned along one of the global danger zones of the world where high seas piracy thrives. At the north-west of Kenya lies the Sudan, the biggest African country which has been at war with itself for over two decades. Opportunities lie on Kenya's way as a neighbour to Sudan, a country endowed with oil resources and agricultural potential. National interest is at the core of Kenya's hand of generosity towards Southern Sudan. In assessing the trade interests pursued by Kenya in Southern Sudan, the research proposes to describe the assistance extended to the Government of Southern Sudan, Kenya's commitment to the peace initiative, the likely economic benefits accruing from oil in Southern Sudan, market for Kenyan goods and services and an end to the refugee question from Sudan. To put all these into perspective, the research proposes to collect data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, GoSS Mission in Nairobi, and Ministry of Trade, scholars in History, Economics and International Relations among others. Document analysis will also be used in defining the interest. To achieve this, the research will employ use of questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussion and literature review as data collection instruments. The qualitative survey report will be presented in from of an analytical description. The findings will be instrumental in describing the realism of Kenya's engagement in Southern Sudan, and thus encourage Kenya's business class into Southern Sudan. Kenya is also likely to benefit from fairer terms in procurement of oil resources from the northern neighbour. The research also seeks to assess the validity of realism as a paradigm in understanding international politics.
CONTENTS
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS viii
DEFINITION OF OPERATIONAL TERMS ix
1.3 Statement of the problem 4
1.7 Significance of the Study 6
1.8 Justification of the Study 6
1.9 Scope and Limitation of the Study 7
2.2 Kenya's Economic Interests in Southern Sudan 14
3.3 Description of the Study Area and Study Population 18
Data Collection Instruments 18
3.3.5 Focus Group Discussions 20
3.4 Data analysis and presentation 20
3.5 Validity and Reliability of Research Tools 21
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ACP African Caribbean and Pacific countries
AU African Union
CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement
EPA Economic Partnership Agreement
GOSS Government of Southern Sudan
ICC International Criminal Court
IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development
IMF International Monetary Fund
KESSULO Kenya Southern Sudan Liaison Office
MFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs
NCP National Congress Party
NGO Non-Governmental Organisations
LRA Lord's Resistance Army
SPLA Sudanese People's Liberation Army
SPLM Sudanese People's Liberation Movement
UNO United Nations Organisation
USAID United States Aid
USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction
DEFINITION OF OPERATIONAL TERMS
Ethnic group: people sharing a real or imagined common ancestry, patterns of kinship, customs, geographical origins, and other cultural practises.
National interest: matters considered by a nation to be its business in which the nation reserves the right of intervention
Foreign policy: this is the course of action or inaction taken by a government to meet its interests abroad. It includes the values that give rise to objectives set and the instruments used to pursue these objectives.
National security: the protection against internal and external threats to territorial integrity and sovereignty, the people, their rights, freedoms, property, peace, stability and prosperity and other national interests.
Power: a relational phenomenon where an actor in international relations is able to persuade another actor to do what it might otherwise not do.
Power potential: a measure of a country's total capabilities
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Introduction
National interest is the long term goals of a state derived from the core national values. It is manifested in a state's foreign policy principles and decisions. Thus national interest shapes the behaviour of a state in international politics. No state can operate without national interests, whether subjectively or objectively defined. The most outstanding interest for any state is security, both of the territory and the people. The industrialized countries have the basic principles guiding their national interest, but the political regime gives flesh to the framework. In the developing society, the national interest is defined in narrow terms of the incumbent regime. There are no foundational values; policies are informed by short-term considerations, in form of crisis management.
National interest is also pursued in economic and political fronts. Desire for hegemony is intended for a state's physical security. The 19th century saw the United Kingdom as a hegemonic power, giving way to the United States in the 20th century. The 21st Century international system is controlled by the United States after the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in the last decade of the 20th century. The United States has exhibited unilateralism on many fronts, often going against the stand of the United Nations as it did in the 2nd Persian Gulf War ostensibly to unseat the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. The American argument was that Saddam Hussein was developing weapons of mass destruction and facilitating terrorist activities (Documents on Iraq and WMD, 2008). However, analysts argue that the real purpose of this hegemonic pursuit was to gain economic, military and political dominance and to assure its national security. Colonialism and mercantilist policies were pursued for economic and industrial interests, and so the concerned countries invaded the developing nations of the world to pursue these interests (Moore, 2004).
In light of the research in question, national interest is defied by the political class of the day. The example given of the Second Gulf War indicates that the interests pursued by the President and Vice President in the USA informed the state's decision to launch a major international war against the Saddam regime in Iraq. Kenya equally pursues interests in Southern Sudan, interests that are defined in terms of economic benefits. A number of Kenyans are operating enterprises in Southern Sudan, besides transport companies and financial institutions based in Kenya (Group, International Crisis, 2010).
National interest may also be understood in terms of the objectives of a sovereign state. George Kousoulas avers that it is in the national interest to engage in international transactions or confrontations in a manner to improve chances of beneficial outcomes while scaling down probable losses. There is no objectively determined content of national interest and so the concept does not qualify as an analytical tool for evaluation of foreign policy (Kousoulas, 1985). This does not degrade the study of national interests. It is the purpose of this study to examine Kenya's economic interests in Southern Sudan. This is in agreement with Kousoulas that there is no objectively determined content of national interest.
This research sets out to examine Kenya's economic interest in Southern Sudan. In his address to Kenya's ambassadors and high commissioners during their 13th Conference in August 30th 2004, Kenya's president emphasised the need for Kenya's envoys abroad to enhance awareness on economic prospects in Kenya. He specifically singled out Sudan as an investment opportunity where Kenya is interested in contributing to development after a successful signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (Presidential Press Service, 2004). Kenya has a keen eye on the events in Southern Sudan, and the President has a Southern Sudan Liaison Office within his office dedicated to advice on Southern Sudan and assistance to the SPLM (Group, International Crisis, 2010). Kenya is also involved in training Southern Sudanese administrative staffs as well as assisting in drafting legal documents for the GoSS (ibid). The International Crisis Group report argues that Kenya enjoys a predominant export relationship with Khartoum and is expected to be the major victor should the referendum expected in January 2011 result in a positive vote.
Background
Kenya is a state on the east coast of Africa, strategically placed as East and Central Africa's economic as well as information, communication and technology hub. The state has an area of 582,646 sq. km of land and water, with a population of approximately 39 million people. This population is not evenly distributed. The northern parts are inhabited by Cushitic speakers in the arid and semi arid lands. They are mostly pastoralist communities, predominantly Muslim by religion, and have close links to the Somali in Somalia. Others are Boran, Rendille and Oromo among others. The population of Western, Central and Coastal regions comprise mainly of Bantu speakers. Included in this group are the Kikuyu, Kamba, Luhya, Gusii and Meru among others. The Western region is known for agricultural production due to the climatic conditions favourable to crop production other economic activities include fishing, mining and trade, among others. The area around the Eastern wing of the Great Rift Valley in Kenya also enjoys an agricultural climate. Major agricultural products include maize, wheat, horticulture and tea. The region is predominantly Nilotic who comprise of Maasai, Samburu, Turkana, Kalenjin, and Luo among others. These are the three major linguistic families in Kenya.
Kenya and its neighbours
Kenya borders five countries, namely Tanzania, Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somali. Of this, Kenya shares closer links with Tanzania and Uganda due to their shared history in terms of colonialism. The three countries were colonised by the British, and thus have a lot to share in terms of politics, culture and economy. After independence, the three states established an economic zone, the East African Community, as a further demonstration of a shared culture. The colonisers' aim was to entrench westernisation and western culture in order to rule over their subjects with more ease. The structure of government for these three countries is thus similar.
Historically, Kenya was the regional economic hub. Nairobi was the political as well as industrial headquarters of the British colonial interests in East Africa. This accounted for the faster development of Kenya in the region, making it the most industrialised state of the three at the time of independence and after. Kenya was known for its better agricultural production, leading to European settler interests. It was dominated by the high class of European farmers as it had the crown lands in parts of the Rift Valley, Central and western regions.
Like many African countries, Kenya has had border conflicts with all its neighbours at one point of independence or another, the worst, and which almost culminated into a shooting conflict, was with Somali. The first President sent a strong warning, almost declaring war against Somali. The government vowed not to cede a single inch of Kenya's land. Idd Amin also brought controversy by claiming parts of Kenya up to Naivasha, a town within the Rift Valley region. Worth noting in this case is that the region claimed by Amin contains tourist sites. Besides, the Ugandan President could earn prestige for his country to by expanding his territory through conquest. This aggressive tendency was met with boldness from the Kenyan Government in defence of national interest.
The above cases indicate that states often act for their national interests which are often egoistic as argued by Hans Morgenthau (1948).
With the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, Kenya has maintained steady economic ties with Southern Sudan, to the suspicion of the Khartoum Government. To illustrate the extent of these economic relations, the Kenya Commercial Bank has established eight branches in Juba, the capital city of the Government of Southern Sudan, with negotiations going on involving the establishment of Cooperative Bank. Furthermore, Kenya is involved in training and structuring the administrative and economic system of Southern Sudan. Kenya's President has established a liaison office in the Office of the President to coordinate and advice the President on the challenges and opportunities in Southern Sudan (Group, International Crisis, 2010).
Sudan and its neighbours
Sudan is a vast country, the biggest in Africa. It is bounded to the north by Egypt; the Red Sea, Eritrea and Ethiopia to the east, Kenya, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo to the south; and, finally, to the west, it is bound by the Central African Republic, Chad and the oil-producing Libya. With a population of over 40 million, Sudan has a total area of 2,505,800 sq km. Southern Sudan is more populated as compared to the north because of the relatively favourable climatic conditions. The two major languages are Arabic and Dinka (Johnson, 2006, p. 1).
Sudan has had a protracted civil war fought on religious, cultural and racial lines (ibid). The latest bid at peace initiative resulted in the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the North and South, proposing a referendum in which the latter would decide whether they want to remain within the Sudan or to secede to form an independent state of Southern Sudan. This is because of the contestation that the "Arab north" is insensitive to the affairs of the "African south" (Johnson, 2006). The CPA recognised some of the issues fuelling the protracted war, including political, ethnic and economic interests. A new structure of government was constitutionalised by having the first Vice President of the Government of Sudan from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). The said Vice President, under the Agreement, shall be the President of the semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan implying a Government of "one state, two systems." Allocation of government ministries and other key appointments was also to be shared among the different political factions in the Sudan. The major partners in the power sharing setup that brought in the formation of the Government of National Unity and a Government of Southern Sudan were the National Congress Party and the SPLM.
Southern Sudan
Southern Sudan is a semi-autonomous entity curved within the Sudan, comprising mainly of black population. The region is vast, measuring 597,000 square kilometres (Sudan, 2009). Unlike the Arab North which is dominated by the Islam religion, the South boasts of Christianity and traditional religions (Waihenya, 2006, p. 48). The Comprehensive Peace Agreement recognised the cultural practises and provided for freedom of thought, conscience and religion. The Agreement also recognised all indigenous languages as national languages besides providing English and Arabic as official languages.
Statement of the problem
Hans Morgenthau argues that interests in international politics are defined in terms of power. The major interest of any state is the defence of territorial integrity, national sovereignty and to some extent independence. Whenever a state devotes to industrialisation and economic restructuring, the neighbours may feel threatened, and therefore strive to increase their relative power for balancing purposes. This is because the intentions of a state may not easily be ascertained. The international system is anarchic and without a moral or clear legal system, but political obligations (Murphy, 2004, p. 11). In defining the purpose of Kenya, Munyu Waiyaki, and a former Minister of Foreign Affairs said that Kenya strives to maintain its independence, and secondly, pursue its interests (Arnold, 1981, p. 93). The rest are lesser priorities.
National interest is categorised variously as political, security, economic and cultural, in terms of content. Political interests include state sovereignty, political independence and international significance; security includes military capability, territorial security and maritime interests; economic interests encompass technology trade, international investment and financing, and technology exchange. Finally, cultural interests are further divided into propagation of national culture and heritage and protection of national heritage from foreign decadence (Xuetong, 1997). From the foregoing, economic interests are the ultimate interests of the state while security is the foundation (ibid). Kenya's economy in eastern Africa is only beaten by Sudan in terms of per capita income because of the oil factor in the Sudan. With the anticipated breakaway of Southern Sudan, Kenya expects to benefit from the oil deposits from its northern neighbour. Kenyans are the most entrepreneurial in the region, thanks to the highly capitalist society as a colonial legacy. The Kenyan state is as a result expected to define its foreign policy to tap all the avenues of prosperity.
With respect to Southern Sudan, Kenya has invested through both technical and financial assistance. Financially, the Kenyan Government donated some US$ 5 million to GoSS, to boost the recipient's civil service (Mutiga, 2010), while technically, Kenya has provided training to the civil service of the GoSS. The description of these interests would inform on Kenya's practise in foreign policy with specific reference to economic interests in Southern Sudan.
Aim of the Study
The broad goal of the study is to assess the economic interests in Kenya's engagement with Southern Sudan. Hans Morgenthau argues that states do not act in philanthropy but harbour selfish interests in their endeavours in the international system. One purpose of research is to describe a phenomenon and to enable its explanation, involving accurate observation and measurement (Mugenda & Mugenda, 1999, p. 2). The description provides knowledge for action or further research. This particular study strives to provide an analytical description of Kenya's economic interests in Southern Sudan.
Specific Objectives
This study operates under four main objectives. These are:
- Operationalize the concept of economic interest and contextualise it in Kenyan framework
- Examine Kenya's economic interests in Southern Sudan
- Assess Kenya's engagement with Southern Sudan
- Assess the opportunities for Kenya in Southern Sudan.
Research Questions
- What is the nature and scope of economic interests in general and Kenya's in particular?
- What are the determinants/elements of Kenya's economic interests in Southern Sudan?
- What benefits does Kenya stand to gain by investing in Southern Sudan?
- What are the opportunities for Kenya in relation to the referendum in Southern Sudan?
Significance of the Study
This study proposes to define Kenya's economic interests in Southern Sudan. In describing Kenya's behaviour in relation to GoSS, the research will be testing the relevance of realism as a paradigm in understanding international relations. It will provide a critical description of Kenya's economic deals in Southern Sudan to the benefit of scholarship and the business community. With the impending referendum over either unification or independence for the South, this research will analyse the opportunities for Kenya. Worth noting, the Kenya Commercial Bank is already operating eight branches in Southern Sudan.
Justification of the Study
There have been no studies that have focused on the foreign economic interest, with specific concern on Kenya vis-à-vis Southern Sudan. This justifies a research on this area, assessing Kenya's economic interests as interpreted by the state. Political realism justifiably argues that international relations is practised devoid of ethical and humanistic approaches. What matters in the international system is the pursuance of national interest. Acts of philanthropy realised in the practice of international politics are by-products, or multiplier effects of pursuit of selfish state interests. This research will examine the interest of Kenya in expending colossal amounts of money in enhancing stability in Southern Sudan. With a referendum in the offing in Southern Sudan to decide on either unity or independence of the South from the Sudan, stakes are high as to the outcome. Northern Sudan is predominantly Arab while the South is black. Kenya would be more comfortable having a black race population as its neighbours due to shared culture. Moreover, Kenya would be pleased to have a neighbour sharing the ideals of the East Africa Community, thus expanding the market for its products, and trading opportunities. This research embarks on examining these factors in line with political realism, economic perspective. On the policy the study will challenge the relevant consumers of the generated knowledge on policy concerns arising from pursuit of Kenya's economic interests in Southern Sudan. On the academic dimension the research will attempt to fill in the knowledge gap in respect of the study. So far, no research has been carried out addressing the economic interests for Kenya in Southern Sudan.
Scope and Limitation of the Study
The scope of the study will be Kenya's economic interests in Southern Sudan. The research will examine Kenya's policy towards its north-western neighbour. It will also examine Southern Sudan economic policy towards Kenya. The major expected limitation of the study is the nature of investigation in political science. States often hide their real intentions, and therefore this study may not get a clear picture of what is the real interest from the government. However, the data collected will be professionally analysed to lay bare the interest as interpreted based on information received. Data will be collected from both the business community and the government officials.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
Literature review
National interest may be defined as the goals that states pursue to maximise what is selfishly best for them (Kegley & Wittkopf, 2001). There is no formally accepted formula for identifying the interest. What is agreeable is that the national interest of any state is to protect the territorial integrity and national sovereignty of the state (Xuetong, 1997). This not only guards national survival, it has to guard it adequately. There is clear lack of specialisation and division of labour in international politics (Waltz, 1979, pp. 93-97). Distinct from national politics where there is a well defined separation of powers between the judiciary, legislature and executive, the international system is a self help formation. Capability, and not function, is the principal difference between states. A characteristic of states is that they aspire to meet similar ends. Politics at state level is characterised by specialisation and division of labour, while international politics is awash with duplication of responsibilities (Waltz, 1979, p. 97). What adds to the basic interest of survival is thus at the discretion of the government and policy makers to design (Hawkesworth & Kogan, 1992). This renders national interest an ineffective analytical tool for evaluating foreign policy decisions due to its lack of precision. However, what is clear is that national interest serves to enhance or ensure national survival and territorial integrity (Kousoulas, 1985).
Areas of national interest are varied, just as the state has everything under its watch to take care of. For an interest to qualify to be national, it must be broad cutting. At the heart of a nation's interest are defence, national security, economy, interstate and foreign trade, foreign relations and the state of general national affairs. Kousoulas identifies five goals of national interest. The first one is state survival. States will endeavour to jealously guard their survival at all costs. If there is consent to extinct a state, then it is in a manner of equal benefit of the parties involved. This happened in 1788 when 13 states entered an agreement to establish the United States of America. However, contrary to Kousoulas' argument, the contemporary world is witnessing states forming political federations, surrendering their sovereignty to larger establishments. In Africa, there is the East African Community, which is in the process of establishing a political federation. The European Union is heading the same direction with the establishment of the Euro as the common currency and a European Bank. Lately, the Union came to the aid of Greece after the latter was threatened with economic death following the global economic meltdown.
Defeat in war may lead to extinction of a state as it happened to the Austro-Hungarian Empire following its defeat in the WW1 in 1919. Verbal threats may also exist as Iran is doing in the current impasse in the Middle East. President Ahmedinejad is on record as denying the existence of Israel as a state, calling for its wiping out of the world map. Such statements are however interpreted as political expediency, as Israel remains a state both de jure and de facto. It is a powerful country with among the strongest military intelligence in the world.
It is a goal of national interest to protect the territory of a state. The justification for this varies. It is human nature to protect what is attached to oneself. The mere fact that a people have been living in a territory is reason enough for the person to guard it. Since a nation comprises a people, the people would guard what they consider theirs by right. The other reason for protection of a territory stems from the value of the territory. The Democratic Republic of Congo, for instance, is a country sitting on vast mineral resources, but is prone to ethnic conflicts. This makes the war protracted because the country would not allow an inch to be left out of its reach. In desert areas, states would insist on territorial integrity as Libya holds its expansive desert areas because of the oil reserves. Security concerns also matter. Israel's seizure of Golan Heights in the Arab Israeli war of 1967 has security connotations for Israel. On its part, Syria claims the barren heights for prestige purposes, which is yet another reason for protecting a country's territory.
Preservation of a country's independence is a vital role of national interest. A state is a social and legal reality without superiors; if not peers, a state recognises subordinates. This concept is well articulated in international instruments, though the international system is anarchy, and so the assertion remains on paper. The anarchy aspect is defined in terms of lack of an adequately coordinated system of security. Each state is a "separate, autonomous and formally equal political unit that must count ultimately on its own resources to realise its interests" (Donnelly, 2000). States may not always resist attempt of domination by others. During the Cold War, the conflict between the First and the Second World interfered with the Third World nations. Two decades after the war, the Centre is still meddling with domestic affairs of the periphery, in search of the entrenchment of the interests of the Centre. During the bungled 2007 General Elections in Kenya which culminated into unprecedented post election violence, Europe and America intervened to impose a government to the people of Kenya. The Secretary of State was sent to Kenya to impose a real power sharing government between the two main presidential contenders. Diplomatic and economic pressure was sustained against the Kenyan leadership, to cause a constitutional amendment to establish a coalition government. This is an actual show of lack of political and legal independence on the side of periphery states. Later, a commission was set up to investigate causes of the violence, where the suspects are to be tried at The Hague.
A fourth goal of national interest is national prestige. Col. Muammar Gadhafi of Libya has successfully demonstrated this by the defiance he showed against the west. He was denied economic assistance through international sanctions, but the oil wealth he enjoys kept the desert country surviving in isolation.
Hans Morgenthau is the most influential scholar behind realism approach to international politics. To him, states exist to serve their own interests. There is no morality in international politics. The system is one of self help where all nations strive to attain the maximum from the international system. Nations endeavour to serve their national interests defined in terms of power (Morgenthau, 1948). His argument was greatly informed by the circumstances that led to the Second World War, at the time that idealism was at its peak. Morgenthau's' contention was to find a theory that would ensure international peace and security. In the same vein, Malnes Raino adds that the possibility of interstate physical conflict is assured: this is the major conclusion of political realism (Malnes, 1993).
Vasquez argues that a nation's decision makers are the most important actors in understanding international relations. Statesmen are the primary actors in international relations, and their perceptions of reality are what counts in the study of the subject. Therefore, power dynamics as perceived by these statesmen, and not necessarily as they objectively are, are critical in analysis of international relations. In this regard therefore, the national interest of a nation is determined by these decision makers. Failure of a nation to have a coherent set of what is considered national interest is blamed on parochialism within the political class. Vasquez further believes that there is a sharp distinction between foreign policy and domestic policies (Vasquez, 1983). Thirdly, Vasquez correctly argues that international relations is the struggle for power and peace.
From the foregoing, international politics is anarchic and the national leadership of a country have to come up with policies that would assure state survival. Provision of essential services is the basic function of state, the essence of state existence. Social, political and economic policies are framed to capture the state desires for better living standards of the citizens. Economic conditions will have to be smoothened against all odds both at the national and international level. Economic and intellectual wellbeing are new approaches to the amalgamation of state power, distinct from the pursuit of military domination (Puchala & Fagan, 1982).
National interest is considered in a broader sense. It is pursued for interests of a state, with concerns of the interests of neighbouring states. During the Cold War, the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics almost came to a nuclear confrontation. The same spirit applies in cases of environmental conservation. Every country wishes to be advanced technologically. But this carries the prize of environmental degradation. Since humanity shares the same atmosphere, it is necessary to limit the interests to a wider consideration. Humanity can only save itself by considering the safety of one another (Kegley & Wittkopf, World Politics: Trends and Transformation, 2001). Carr cautioned that that the tendency of realism to negate the general principles of mankind cannot serve state interest (Carr, 1964). According to Dr Munyu Waiyaki,
"the first thing is to maintain our independence and the second is to look after our interests: to be able to do this, we have chosen to be a non aligned country which means we can be friends of any countries of the world provided only that they will return our friendship..." (Arnold, 1981, p. 93)
This may explain why, despite the indictment of President Omar Hassan el Bashir of Sudan by the International Criminal Court, Kenya found it in its interest to invite the Sudanese President to the promulgation ceremony of the new constitution on 27th August 2010. There was the obvious international outcry against the state's decision to invite the war criminal suspect, whose arrest warrant has been issued. The invitation was secretive, as the arrival of the President was met with surprise by the guests at the Uhuru Park. In responding to the criticism, the Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetangula defended the Government position by restating Kenya's sovereignty. An academic interpretation of the circus could point to the fact that Kenya played a central role in the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the Bashir Government and the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement/Army. Besides, Sudan is a country endowed with oil, a mineral Kenya needs. In order to better the oil deal and to tap markets in Sudan for its products, Kenya has to court the regime in Khartoum. Kenya is also an active participant in the African Union, an Organisation that has pleaded with the United Nations and the ICC for the suspension of the arrest warrants against President Bashir.
In arguing out the defence of the Government, the Minister was categorical that Kenya has interests to pursue, specifically mentioning the commitment to the African Union, and the collective actions to be undertaken by the African Union members. Dr Waiyaki, in giving the country's priorities emphasised the significance of the belief in pan-Africanism. The argument was that there is need for African unity, and again, Africa "is our home, it's the only continent that really concerns us" (ibid). This line of thinking has occupied the policy makers and political class, since the time of independence.
National interest of a state often comes to conflict with those of other states, and so demands striking a compromise. This partly explains why the external environment to any state actor is conflictual, because power is the basis of inter-state relations (Nnoli, 1978). Robert Ney has argued that in the US-Iran conflict, the international security has to assure the Iranian regime of its security in case there is need to negotiate an end to Iran's nuclear plans. He mentions the case of the 80s when Saddam Hussein attacked Iran with weapons of mass destruction without a tough reaction from the international community (Ney, 2005).
Actions of national leaders are evaluated by the interests they pursue during their leadership at different times in history. Kenya's president Kibaki did not act as expected in the case of the conflict over Migingo Island between Kenya and Uganda. This is in contrast to the first President Jomo Kenyatta who publicly declared that Kenya would not cede an inch of its land to a foreign state. This was at the time Somalis in the former Northern Frontier District were agitating for irredentism. The same response was demonstrated by President Moi when Idd Amin attempted aggressive tendencies against Kenya. Moi ordered Kenyan military to set a camp at the border with Uganda to deter Uganda from such character.
The practise of foreign policy is often informed by the realist concept of interest defined as power. Realists thus believe the state is the unitary actor in international relations and that other actors are merely components or environment under which states operate (Asobie, 1990). The state is the principle unit of analysis and its interests inform policy decisions and actions. The components and environment provide a contextual imperative conditioning state response to matters affecting state relations.
Translation of national interest to foreign policy is done in recognition with the elements of power. These include geographical location, the economy, the military capability, national politics and the nature and ideology of the political elite. Other components of national interest are national security in terms of guarding sovereignty and territorial integrity and economic advancement. These constitute the realist aspect of rational choice.
Lack of independence informs national interest in terms of waging anti-imperialist wars for political sovereignty as it happened during the struggle for independence and emancipation from the yoke of colonialism.
In the struggle for national interest, a state needs to pursue realistic goals, ones that achievable in terms of resource requirements. Struggles for hegemonic influence need to be in consistence with capability in all its hues. A nation needs to re evaluate both internal and external limits of power resources for a more precise definition of goals (Asobie, 1990).
National interest is identified in terms of political, social, cultural, economic and military and territorial security interest (Nwachukwu, 1992). Rediscovering the state outside the confines of neo-colonialism and foreign economic domination is also a national interest issue. At the time of the struggle for independence, Major General Nwachkwu argues that Nigeria was viewed as the moral and political voice in the continent, and it was therefore in its interest to aid the countries which were yet to gain political and economic independence. African nations were to join the various economic organisations to serve their national interest by participating in economic decision making processes. North-South and South-South relations prove to be at the core of national interest. Cooperation and diplomacy increases the capability of a state, and so a state like Kenya needs to consider its interest in establishing itself for benefit.
At the national interest is the extensive marketing of a state, to export its cultural heritage and encourage tourism. Kenya is rich in talent and culture which could be used to sell the positive image, as well as nurturing and advancing talents in the field of theatre and sports. Thus, cultural diplomacy becomes an area of concern. The North has tapped this opportunity by establishing cultural centres in foreign countries. These include the British Council, Alliance Françoise, the Russian Cultural Centre, and the United States Information Service, among others. In Africa, Nigeria and Ghana have made strides. Nigerian literature celebrities dominate the literary world. Writings and African movies from Nigeria have marketed its rich cultural heritage. The Nollywood movies are rating with America's Hollywood and India's Bollywood movies. It sells cultural symbols like the national attire, African religion, traditional ways of conflict resolution, among other cultural elements.
Kenya's Economic Interests in Southern Sudan
Kenya has played a vital role in the peace process in Southern Sudan. Very little has however been researched on in relation to Kenya's economic interests that has turned Kenya into a donor country, away from the conventional donor recipient country. The state in Kenya must be pursuing either declared or undeclared interests in Sudan to justify its aid to the GoSS (Group, International Crisis, 2010). Kenya donated an amount of KES 0.4 billion to the Government based in Juba to assist in civil service structuring and reforms. The State in Kenya has also provided technical support, both legal and administrative to the GoSS (ibid). These gestures could be as a result of the strategic importance of Southern Sudan to Kenya. The South is well endowed with oil (Johnson, 2006, p. 45), a resource that Kenya desperately needs to spur its wheels of economy.
Besides the oil factor, Kenya would also be more comfortable in an environment of shared cultural practises. Southern Sudan, unlike North, comprises of the blacks who share a lot in common with some Kenyan ethnicities like the Turkana. This is unlike the Arab North who is mostly of the Muslim faith, in Arab culture. For this reason, it is easier to coexist with Southern Sudan as a nation rather than with the larger Sudan, where Islamic Sharia law is in application in some places.
Trade relations are another area of concern for Kenya. After Kenya taking the initiative to mediate in the peace process leading to the signing of the CPA in Naivasha, it is pay-back time in its favour. Already several Kenyan business activities are in operation in Southern Sudan. Kenyan-based Safaricom telephony service provider is operating in Southern Sudan alongside Kenya Commercial Bank and negotiations are on to establish Cooperative Bank in Southern Sudan (Group, International Crisis, 2010). Kenya's Equity Bank has also expressed its interests in oil development in Southern Sudan, a major investment in the controversial oil trade. As well, foreign investors in Southern Sudan use Kenyan financial institutions as their intermediaries in trade (ibid).
Through Kenya's close links with Southern Sudan, opportunities will also be opened for Kenya's interest in the Central African Republic and northern Democratic Republic of Congo. Kenya will use Southern Sudan as a trade route to these vast markets, both in terms of accessing raw materials and for purposes of selling its products (Group, International Crisis, 2010).
Already under discussion is a 1400 km long pipeline from Juba in Southern Sudan to Lamu port, at the Kenyan coastal town. This would spur Kenya's economic growth as Kenya will be dealing in refining oil for both domestic consumption and export purposes (Group, International Crisis, 2010). It would divert Southern Sudan's route, from accessing the sea at Port Sudan in the North, which is 1600 km to Lamu Port (Mutiga, 2010). A railway networking is also being undertaken linking Kenya to Southern Sudan, Ethiopia and Uganda.
For Kenya to gain maximally out of the opportunities in Southern Sudan, the Government must be steadfast at improving the necessary infrastructure. With the fast approaching referendum, Southern Sudan may be the fifty-fourth country in Africa, richly blessed in minerals and ready markets for Kenyan products.
Theoretical Framework
This research works on the assumptions of the realist approach to international politics. Hans Morgenthau held that international politics is guided by state-centric interests. International relations are therefore influenced by national interest defined in terms of power. He argued that there is no philanthropy internationally, and morality is not the concern of political players.
Kenneth Waltz believes that countries cannot operate in isolation. They need to corporate with others. Domestic policies cannot be isolated from foreign policy. Kenya has obvious economic interests in Southern Sudan, interest that have been stated openly. The International Crisis Group (2010) reveals that the Minister for Foreign Affairs has established a committee to look at possible scenarios in relation to Kenya's engagement with Southern Sudan after the January 2010 referendum in the Southern Sudan. Therefore for a nation to have power there has to be internal structures in place that would enhance national stability. It is the desire of Kenya to have a strong Government of Southern Sudan to assure security for the success of business activities.
Conceptual framework
This work is informed by the role played by Kenya in pursuit of its interests in Southern Sudan. Kenya's involvement in peace negotiations for the Sudan leading to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005 was definitely informed by the opportunities anticipated in its relations with Southern Sudan in particular, and its neighbours in general. A friendly neighbour is an indication of economic and political security. Southern Sudan is expected to be a friend of Kenya as well as a major trading partner.
Economic elements will also be linked to trade interests Kenya is after in Southern Sudan. Southern Sudan boasts of almost all the oil deposits in Sudan. Upper Nile and Jonglei Provinces have the major oil fields, estimated at 10 billion barrels (Johnson, 2006, p. 45). Oil production in Sudan is estimated at a rate of 500,000 barrels a day translated to an estimated US$ 9 billion (ibid, p. 46). Southern Sudan is also fairly endowed with water resource. Numerous rivers from Central Africa, East Africa and Ethiopia meet in Southern Sudan besides the region enjoying substantial amounts of rainfall each year. Infrastructural development work is already on going. The construction of a sea port in Lamu; updating of the railway network connecting Kenya to Juba, Uganda and Ethiopia; and the extension of the Trans African Highway Road Network linking Southern Sudan to Mombasa. The 1400-km pipeline from Juba to Lamu is also a point of concern.
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Introduction
Research is the process involving a systematic search for a solution to a societal problem through systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of data (Mugenda & Mugenda, 1999, p. 1). One of the purposes of research is to describe phenomena (ibid). This particular research seeks to describe the engagement of Kenya with Southern Sudan in an effort to explain the economic interest Kenya is pursuing in the region.
This research will employ several modes of data collection and analysis. Information will be sought from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Embassy of Southern Sudan, Ministry of Trade, and political scientists. Methods to be employed in data collection, the sampling procedures and the analysis and presentation of data are explained.
Research Design
Research design is a blueprint or a detailed plan of how the study is going to be conducted. There are two main paradigms that would be used in research namely quantitative and qualitative. This research takes both forms following a descriptive survey method.
A survey is an attempt to collect data from a population for purposes of determining the status of the population at a point in time with respect to one or more variables (Mugenda & Mugenda, 1999, pp. 164-165). The choice of this kind of research is informed by the fact that descriptive survey can adequately describe the economic engagement of Kenya in Southern Sudan in examining the former's economic interest. Besides, the research will explore the existing status of the economic interest by employing expert discussion, document analysis and collecting original data through interviews, questionnaires and focus group discussions.
Surveys have some general limitations, of which measures have been taken to militate against. Surveys are greatly dependent on the cooperation of the respondents. The researcher will endeavour to establish a friendly rapport with the respondents, above and beyond having adequate data collection procedures for the exercise. It is a characteristic of qualitative research of which this work is based, that the primary data collection instrument is people (Mugenda & Mugenda, 1999, p. 204). Secondly, unknown information to the respondent may not be tapped. The researcher will go through relevant literature which may help in guiding the respondent on areas s/he may not be adequately informed over. Definitely some information which may be considered personal may be requested. In the interview process, the respondent will be convinced that all information will be treated both anonymously and confidentially to enhance objectivity.
Description of the Study Area and Study Population
The research will be carried out in Kenya. Areas of interest include the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Embassy of Southern Sudan, and focus group discussions with scholars of History and International Relations.
Sampling technique
Purposive sampling will be used in selecting respondents. The said ministries are involved in trade relations with the GoSS. The Ministry of Trade, for instance, will provide information on the strategies employed by the Ministry. Foreign Affairs Ministry will provide information on policy towards Southern Sudan, and the justification for Kenya's engagement with Southern Sudan. Scholars in History and International Relations are to bring a theoretical approach to the concept of trade interest.
Data Collection Instruments
Major instruments for data collection shall be document analysis, questionnaire, focus group discussions and structured interviews.
Document Analysis
Documents are written materials that provide specific information required for a particular purpose. In this research, authentic documents will be used, from the both government and non-government institutions. Kothari defines document analysis as involving the review of the contents of particular documents with the view of adducing relevant secondary data (Kothari, 1990). Well thought and researched information is availed through document analysis. Unobtrusive information is obtained, which may be used for further analysis in the context of the research objectives. Because the data can be accessed at the convenience of the researcher's time, the whole process proves less demanding. What's more, this instrument is time conscious and less expensive in terms of transcription.
Interviews
An interview is a researcher's initiated conversation with a respondent for the purpose of obtaining specific information. The questions are informed by the objectives of the research being conducted, done in a systemised approach where one question guides the approach on the subsequent question. Interviews are used to gather primary data for research.
Strengths and weaknesses of using interviews
An interview is flexible and adaptable to any situation. It provides a short cut to getting information on behaviour rather than observation, and may be framed to take care of any inconsistencies within the respondent's answers. Besides, a face-to-face interview allows possibility of modifying one's line of enquiry. This gives room for following up interesting responses and explaining underlying motives guiding the respondent's philosophy. Non verbal cues play an important role in understanding verbal responses. A person's opinion cannot be observed as a person's behaviour. An interview is therefore superlative for this purpose. Besides this advantage, an interview may also provide historical information as well as according the researcher control over the line of questioning.
Interviews are time consuming and difficult to schedule. They require a time that both the researcher and the respondent are available. This research will strictly restrict the interviews within one hour, and will base the time on the convenience of the respondent. Another weakness is on the researcher bias. This is a common phenomenon in research. However, guidelines on the research questions will be prepared to reduce the level of biasness in the whole process, and will employ the semi-structured model interview.
Questionnaires
A questionnaire is a set of systematically structured questions used by a researcher to get needed information from respondents. Questionnaires have been termed differently, including surveys, schedules, indexes/indicators, profiles, studies, opinionnaires, batteries, tests, checklists, scales, inventories, forms, inter alia. They are
…any written instruments that present respondents with a series of questions or statements to which they are to react either by writing out their answers or selecting from among existing answers. (Brown, 2001, p. 6)
The questionnaire may be self administered, posted or presented in an interview format. A questionnaire may include check lists, attitude scales, projective techniques, rating scales and a variety of other research methods. As an important research instrument and a tool for data collection, a questionnaire has its main function as measurement (Oppenheim, 1992, p. 100). It is the main data collection method in surveys and yield to quantitative data. Also, due to provision for open endedness, the instrument may be used to generate qualitative and exploratory data (Dornyei, 2007, p. 101).
Strengths abound of using this as a data collection instrument. The method is both cheap and effective. Once the questionnaire schedule is ready, it is sent to the respondents, who will fill in and return for analysis. Since the respondents are all educated and are used to filling in questionnaire schedules, this proves to be the best instrument for this particular survey. Besides, the respondents will have adequate time to offer well thought answers devoid of unnecessary influence and bias from the researcher. With a limited time of one month of data collection, this method proves ideal.
Questionnaires have their own weaknesses, which may compromise the findings of the research. Lower turnout rate may be countered by sending reminders to respondents in good time. Details of the researcher will be provided in case the respondent seeks further clarification on question asked. A concept paper will be presented explaining the terminologies employed and the importance of the research to both the institution of higher learning and the nation. It is expected that the turn out will be encouraging, owing to the level of education and experience of the respondents.
Focus Group Discussions
The focus groups will comprise of students and academic staff from Moi University. The group discussions will be used to get a cross cutting view on trade interests in Southern Sudan.
Data analysis and presentation
Data analysis is the ordering, structuring and infusion of meaning to the mass of data collected to yield useful information. The data will be analysed using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Open-ended questions would be scaled and the results analysed in descriptive form. Data presentation will take the form of a descriptive analysis due to the fact that the research is qualitative in nature. Description of respondents' behaviour perceptions and expectations relative to this research will be presented in context. Verbatim presentations will also be presented as respondents' "voices."
Validity and Reliability of Research Tools
It is virtually impossible to do a research devoid of errors. It is therefore a responsibility of a researcher to devise ways of minimising errors. A possible reason for the error is the nature of complexity and dynamics of phenomena under question (Mugenda & Mugenda, 1999, p. 3). Errors actually cause prediction to vary from reality, and this will depend on the methodology and accuracy of the research tools. Sources of error may include inaccurate observations in the process of data collection, biases and changes in conditions of research in the process of the exercise (ibid). The most important aspect that may influence the respondents is the expected referendum due for 2011 that is expected to decide on whether Southern Sudan will unite with the North, or will secede.
Validity
This is the ability of a measurement instrument measuring what is expected to be measuring. In this case, it is the degree to which the researcher measures what he sets out to measure. One of the ways of judging validity is through setting logical structures by justifying each question in relation to the objectives of the study. In this study, this will be achieved through expert discussions on trade interest and steps taken by the Kenyan government to entrench its interests in Southern Sudan. There will be attempts to establish a logical link between the research questions and the objectives of the study, to keep the process in context. Both content and face validity will be achieved through consultation with the supervisors and colleagues.
Reliability
Reliability of a measuring instrument is ascertained by the ability of the instrument to yield consistent results whenever applied (Mugenda & Mugenda, 1999). The four major instruments employed in this research are expected to pass the test of reliability. Triangulation will be used to test consistency of respondents. Triangulation will be used in the administration of interviews, where questions will be twisted to test the consistency of the respondent. Triangulation will also be used in the case of the four instruments of data collection. Responses will be compared within these four instruments.
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